Fresh Politics, New Media

I'm sure that Michael LaCour hoped to make the front page of The New York Times many times over during his career as a Princeton political scientist -- preferably being featured in articles that talked about groundbreaking research (and real results), not his fabrication of a study with Columbia University political scientist Donald Green on the impact of political canvassing on public opinion toward same-sex marriage. The story of the "great gay marriage hoax" is a compelling one for academic researchers, policy activists, and the general public alike. The revelation by Green that the data may have been fabricated , has many reputable news organizations issuing retractions and apologies including Ira Glass over at This American Life . And plenty of academics were jamming up Retraction Watch, making it hard to access Ivan Oransky's breaking post as well as Brockman, Kalla, and Arronow's Irregularities in LaCour (2014) that noted the study's problemat...

A new article I wrote on trends in public opinion toward employment discrimination is now available online at The International Journal of Public Opinion Research . The article will later be in print in the journal's special issue on Public Opinion about Gay Rights/Marriage being edited by Paul Brewer . The piece examines evolving views on whether school boards should have the authority to fire known homosexual teachers between 1987-2012 (N=35,578). In the process, I consider whether we have seen a sea change in public opinion on the issue similar to the dynamic we've recently been witnessing with the same-sex marriage debate. As the chart below shows, 51.5% of Americans expressed support for the practice when Pew first started collecting data in 1987. By 2012, only 21% of Americans still expressed support for the practice. These individuals are what researchers call the hard core , those who retain minority viewpoints in the face of majority opposition. As the results sugge...

I really enjoy watching David Brooks and Mark Shields engage in a civil discussion of the week's news on the Friday broadcast of the PBS News Hour . While I don't always agree with David Brooks' politics, I do think he presents some very rational and pressing arguments in his work (his recent column on weed aside). In today's New York Times, Brooks critiques our heightened love of machines and the use of automation to replace human dependent tasks like driving cars or picking stocks. Brooks makes the point that even in this age of rapidly expanding technology, there are certain human activities that machines just can't replicate. Brooks is certainly right on some fronts. But maybe the question isn't a dichotomous one -- machine vs. human? Perhaps, as I've seen in my own recent work with a team of computer science colleagues , it's about using machines to enhance human efforts. Relying on techniques from the world of artificial intelligence (e.g., aut...

I published two research articles on public opinion toward same-sex marriage this week. The two solo-authored research articles extend my previous research on attitudes toward this controversial issue . The first piece,  What’s marriage (and family) got to do with it? Support for same-sex marriage, legal unions, and gay and lesbian couples raising children   was published by Social Science Quarterly . The article examines the impact of marital and family status and views on the purpose of marriage on support for gay marriage, legal unions, and gay and lesbian couples raising children. The bottom line: while ideological and religious values still matter most when it comes to predicting opinions on gay civil rights issues, it's also important to look at the role that marriage, family, and views on the purpose of marriage have in shaping the debate. The second piece,  Determinants of public support for same-sex marriage: Generational cohorts, social contact, and shifti...

The lead story in the National section of today's New York Times  focuses on the debate over same-sex marriage in Maryland. The controversy is starting to heat up this week as legislators in Annapolis consider possible legislation. The story focuses on the concerns of African-American churchgoers in particular, highlighting a cultural dynamic that is particularly relevant given Maryland's demographic make-up. According to the article: Maryland’s Democrats are sharply divided by race on the issue. A Washington Post poll published on Jan. 30 found that 71 percent of white respondents supported it, while 24 percent did not. Among blacks, 41 percent were supportive, while 53 percent were opposed. African-Americans are an important constituency here: their share of the population — 29 percent — is greater than in many Southern states, including Alabama and South Carolina, according to the Brookings Institution. Those backing the bill hope the religious accommodations proposed ...

If you're a fan of The Wire, it's quite possible that Omar is one of your favorite characters and Michael K. Williams is therefore one of your favorite actors on the series. Whether good or bad, for those outside Maryland, Omar and The Wire  drive impressions of Baltimore. As it turns out, Michael K. Williams is the latest in a string of of folks who are speaking out for marriage equality in Maryland. Check out the PSA below:

Both Washington state and Maryland will be considering the same-sex marriage issue yet again this winter. A report in today's New York Times  suggests that the Washington legislature now has enough votes to pass the measure, making Washington the seventh state to legalize gay marriage. Can Maryland be the 8th state? A new report in today's Baltimore Sun  outlines the specifics of the bill Governor O'Malley submitted to the state legislature last night. Included are greater protections for both religious leaders and institutions that oppose same-sex marriage. While there was strong support for an alternate bill in the Senate last year, the bill fell short of the votes needed to pass in the House of Delegates. This year O'Malley plans to be more active in the debate, leading the push to see the measure passed. Stay tuned as both sides gear up for a battle in Maryland. For more, check out coverage of the effort in The Washington Post .

President Obama continues to "evolve" with respect to his stance on same-sex marriage. In recent months, he's repealed Don't Ask Don't Tell, instructed the Justice Department not to defend DOMA, and supported the statements of surrogates like Hillary Clinton and others who are championing the cause of gay rights, in this case on an international stage. Whether Obama shows his support for same-sex marriage before the November 2012 election remains to be seen, yet speculation abounds. While recent polls have shown that a majority of Americans now support same-sex marriage , it may be more prudent for Obama to wait until 2013 to reach "total evolution." Much of this will of course depend on how his poll numbers look among key groups of swing voters. In the meantime, look for federal agencies and cabinet officials to pick up the slack and champion a more inclusive outlook.

Conan O'Brien will officiate at the first same-sex marriage featured on late-night television .  Check it out tonight as Conan marries the show's costume designer  Scott Cronick to his partner David Gorshein. Of course the media had an instant reaction to the pending nuptials. Luckily Conan was able to turn their reaction into a fairly funny comic bit.  The wedding will also commemorate the one year anniversary of Conan's affiliation with TBS. Three cheers to Conan for being willing to "push the envelope."

Frank Bruni has an interesting column in today's New York Times . He talks about the relationship between race and support for same-sex marriage. More specifically, Bruni focuses on the African-American community chronicling their lack of support for same-sex marriage initiatives especially when compared against Hispanic and Caucasian voters. Bruni's piece is worth a read for a number of reasons, but it is his discussion of the upcoming Maryland case that piqued my interest. Public opinion research has documented the differences in support for same-sex marriage legislation in the state and the particular opposition the measure faces from African-American pastors and the religious community they represent. Given the state of affairs in Maryland and the state of national public opinion (at least when it comes to race and support for same-sex marriage), it should therefore come as no surprise that the Human Rights Campaign has enlisted Newark Mayor Cory Booker (video featured be...

The Baltimore Sun  is reporting that Governor Martin O'Malley plans to push for a new state law that would  legally recognize same-sex marriage in the state of Maryland . According to The Baltimore Sun , O'Malley plans to put his full support behind the bill and has charged his top legislative aide with pushing the bill through the Senate and the House of Delegates. O'Malley's push for same-sex marriage legislation is well-timed -- same-sex marriages begin tomorrow in New York State and the Obama administration just officially certified the repeal of the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy. It seems that Barack Obama isn't the only one who is evolving on the issue -- O'Malley, once just in favor of civil unions, is now a supporter of same-sex marriage. This is hot news in Maryland -- the only hotter news is the heat wave and BGE's suspension of service yesterday for Peak Rewards customers . O'Malley's announcement was the focus of the lead ed...

This weekend, New York State will begin issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples -- this Sunday to be precise. Many New York judges have volunteered to work on Sunday in order to expedite the issuing of marriage licenses according to a story in last week's New York Times . An Op-Ed column by Frank Bruni in today's New York Times  highlights how the new law will change the lives of one New York City family. The story about  dads Jonathan Mintz and John Feinblatt and daughters Maeve and Georgia is heartwarming. The piece emphasizes the personal nature of the issue  -- an angle that proved important during the debate over the bill's passage in New York last month.  In fact, some would argue that the framing of the same-sex marriage debate has shifted. News coverage focuses less on moral and religious objections to same-sex marriage and instead emphasizes concerns about equality and civil rights and the influence of personal and social contact on public opinion....

Now that New York has shown its support for same-sex marriage, many are questioning which state(s) will take up the issue next. So far, Maine, North Carolina, Maryland, and a handful of other states have been suggested as the next places to watch. This weekend, The Baltimore Sun  outlined their view on what it will take to pass a same-sex marriage bill in Maryland. Three ingredients for success: (1) leadership on the issue by Governor O'Malley, (2) the involvement of state Republicans, and (3) inclusion of strong language allowing exemptions for objecting religious organizations. Is this enough? What will it take for Maryland to pass same-sex marriage legislation during the next session of the state legislature?

Nate Silver has a new post over at 538  on the future of same-sex marriage and civil unions ballot initiatives at the state level. In this updated analysis, Silver works to predict the likelihood that various US states will approve bans on same-sex marriage and civil unions. Using data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Study (yay Anneberg!), Silver incorporates three key state-level variables: median age, ideological orientation (balance between liberals and conservatives), and religiosity. Silver is correct to incorporate these three considerations -- previous research ( my own work included ) shows strong and significant negative relationships between conservative political ideology, religiosity, age, and opinions toward same-sex marriage. Also included are two time-trend or time series variables that measure different approaches to changing public opinion on the issue: a linear trend and an accelerated trend that is set-up to match national shifts in public opinion...

Three interesting stories on same-sex marriage appeared in the NYT  today, signaling that the debate is indeed a large focus of the national media agenda. ** In Rhode Island, legislators approved a civil unions bill with strong religious protections for those opposed to extending the benefit. Apparently, the goal was to pass a same-sex marriage bill but there simply wasn't enough support in the state for such a policy and Governor Lincoln Chafee lacked the political muscle of Cuomo to push a same-sex marriage bill through the Providence state capitol. So is this incremental progress or a victory for the opposition? ** President Obama's position on same-sex marriage apparently continues to "evolve" according to  this story by Sheryl Gay Stolberg in today's NYT. During a press conference yesterday, Obama came a bit closer to endorsing gay marriage, but yet again stopped short.  According to the NYT: "Mr. Obama later held a Gay Pride reception at t...

Frank Bruni offers an interesting take on the same-sex marriage debate in today's New York Times new Sunday Review section. Yes, the same Frank Bruni who was the NYT 's former chief restaurant critic. Bruni stresses how personal connections with gays and lesbians in one's own social circle or network continue to shape the same-sex marriage debate and influence changes in public policy -- most recently in New York State. Bruni writes: " This issue will increasingly transcend partisan politics and hinge less on party affiliation or archaic religious doctrine than on the intimate, everyday dynamics of family and friendship." I think Bruni stresses a very important point and one that is backed up by solid evidence from recent public opinion polls. In a recent article entitled, " New Voters, New Outlook? Predispositions, Social Networks, and the Changing Dynamics of Gay Civil Rights ," published in the June 2011 issue of Social Science Quarterly  wi...